Abstract
Persistent low fertility across diverse contexts cannot be fully explained by classical theories emphasizing economic conditions, gender roles, and family policy. In today’s era of uncertainty, global shocks such as climate change, economic crises, democratic instability, and armed conflict increasingly shape reproductive choices. This study examines how household characteristics and macro-level uncertainties interact to influence fertility intentions in Italy, Germany, Argentina, and the United States. Drawing on factorial survey experiments with more than 6,500 respondents aged 20 - 44, we systematically vary family attributes (income, homeownership, parity, gender role arrangements), childcare provision, and global risk scenarios. Results show that economic security is the strongest determinant of childbearing intentions, followed by the availability of affordable childcare. Macro-level uncertainties also significantly reduce fertility intentions, with the strongest effect of economic crises observed in Argentina and the weakest effect of conflicts and wars in the US. Treating household income as continuous, we estimate respondents’ willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid global risks: between €246 and €1,465 monthly depending on the risk and country, corresponding to 8–40% of national median incomes. Summed across risks, the implicit total WTP reaches €1,399 in Argentina, €1,850 in Italy, €3,009 in Germany, and €4,777 in the US. These findings highlight the substantial “price of uncertainty” borne by individuals when considering family formation, underscoring that fertility intentions are shaped not only by household and policy supports but also by broader perceptions of insecurity.
Link Microsoft Teams
Organisation
Nicola Barban