Abstract
Theories of the fertility response to business cycle fluctuations consider major crises exclusively as economic experiences. Yet, economic downturns are also social phenomena, affecting psychological outcomes, communities and morality, and social interactions. When societal changes are of a sufficient magnitude, they tend to break down the social fabric and represent additional sources of uncertainty which may produce effects on reproductive decisions beyond those of economic unpredictability alone. The increase in insecurity about the social environment can be thus subsumed under the notion of social uncertainty. Social factors have been largely overlooked by the literature on the determinants of low fertility in western societies in the context of crises. Applying Multinomial Logit Models to 17 waves of the longitudinal Swiss Household Panel (SHP, 2004-2020) data, this study evaluates the effects of social forms of uncertainty on men’s and women’s intentions to have a first or second child, net of perceived economic uncertainty. Besides gender and parity differences, the study further explores contextual variation by comparing the two most recent crises: The Great Recession of 2008 and the Covid-19 pandemic. Overall, results show that social uncertainties, both measured as lowered generalized trust and civic engagement, correlate negatively with the intention among parents to have a second child. Low civic engagement also correlates negatively with first birth intentions. Yet, while the association among parents was greatest during the acute phase of the Great Recession, the role of social uncertainties among childless has increased over time, being maximal in second half of the 2010s.
Organizzatore
Nicola Barban