The heterogeneous effects of job loss on fertility. Evidence from the United Kingdom and Germany

Relatore: Alessandro di Nallo (Bocconi University)

  • Data: 14 ottobre 2021 dalle 11:30 alle 12:30

  • Luogo: Aula S. Giacomo, via S. Giacomo 3

We analyze the effect of job loss on fertility in the United Kingdom and Germany. Using a quasi-causal approach, we make the case that involuntary job loss approximates an exogenous source of unemployment and measures the impact on the probability of birth within 5 years from a job loss. 
We study couples from large population representative panel surveys in Germany (N=14,995) and the UK (N=15,637), which contain yearly information about employment, relationship status and fertility histories. We contribute to the literature by assessing whether a man’s or a woman’s job loss are consequential for a couple’s childbearing. Also, we identify possible channels of transmission of the effect of job loss on fertility. Eventually, we study heterogeneous effects based on couples’ income, earnings division between partners, parental status and women’s age. Our results show that men's and, to a larger extent, women’s job loss negatively affects chances of birth, especially in the UK. Further, a job loss is more consequential in income-egalitarian/female breadwinner households in the UK, while male-breadwinner families are hit more severely in Germany. Younger women and childless couples are also more exposed to a fertility decline.

Nicola Barban