Abstract
The impact of climate change on fertility lacks a clear scientific consensus and remains understudied, often limited to specific regions or catastrophic events. This study addresses this gap by comprehensively examining climate change's impact on fertility in low- and middle-income countries. We construct a comprehensive fertility rate database covering 82 countries at the national level and 590 subnational regions in 65 countries at the subnational level - representing respectively 4.5 and 3.8 billions of individuals in 2020 - by aggregating respectively 290 and 232 Demographic and Health Surveys. First, using monthly frequency data, we analyse short to medium-term effects. We find that, in the short term, increased temperatures lead to a temporary fertility decline, compensated by a rebound effect in the medium term. Variability exists, notably with slower recovery for women in less developed regions and lower education levels. On top of that rebound effect, analysis with yearly data show an additional increase of fertility 4 to 6 years after a temperature anomaly, followed by a gradual decline so that cumulative effects of climate change on fertility in the long run are positive, but not significantly from zero. Moreover a positive shock in precipitation lead to a cumulative increase of the fertility.
Finally, we project these results according to the main scenarios of the SSP-RCP matrix and find that, overall, climate change leads to an increase in the total population coupled with significant heterogeneity. Indeed, the scenarios (and countries) with the highest fertility rates are those with the largest relative population deviations. In addition, increases in fertility due to changes in temperature and rainfall patterns are particularly marked in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where the population deviation appears to be the greatest.
This work reconciles conflicting literature, showing that positive and negative impacts coexist depending on the analysis's temporal depth, emphasizing the importance of considering climate change in population projections and assessing vulnerabilities in developing countries.
Moreover, we show that climate change appear to be a potential major driver concerning future fertility in low and middle-income countries.
Collegamento Microsoft Teams
Organizzazione
Raya Muttarak