Discussant:
Leopoldo Catania (University of Aarhus).
Abstract
It is shown how new time series models can used to track the progress of an epidemic, forecast key variables and evaluate the e§ects of policies. The univariate framework of Harvey and Kattuman (2020) is extended to model the relationship between two or more series, and the role of common trends is discussed. Data on daily deaths from Covid-19 in Italy and the UK provides an example of leading indicators when there is balanced growth. When growth is not balanced, the model can be extended by including a nonstationary component in the leading series. The viability of this model is investigated by examining the relationship between new cases and deaths in the Florida second wave of summer 2020. Similar models can be used to predict hospital admissions.
Organizzatore
Alessandra Luati